The NDC and LTS targets do not directly cover non-CO 2 greenhouse gases, which amounts to 2.5 GtCO 2e/yr or almost 18% of China’s total emissions. China’s existing peaking, carbon intensity, and non-fossil energy share targets are relative to economic growth or energy system developments, allowing the country to keep its NDC commitments while increasing emissions levels. Improve the formulation and coverage of its climate targets by setting an absolute economy-wide peaking target for greenhouse gas emissions.Production and mining of coal in 2022 were at record high levels, while coal power capacity in the pipeline remains by far the world's largest. High-level political signals including President Xi Jinping’s speech at the 20th CPC National Congress, the 2023 Government Work Report from the “Two Sessions” (annual plenary sessions of two of China’s major political bodies), and strategies from national planning and energy institutions, all emphasise China’s energy security as the first order concern. Control and reduce energy demand and fossil fuel dependence as energy demand is projected to rise by over 12% in 2030 compared to 2021 levels, at a pace where clean energy developments are unable to meaningfully bring down emissions.To strengthen its climate policy to and keep emissions in line with China’s 2060 carbon neutrality target, China could: However, a less optimistic economic forecast coupled with high emissions in 2030 puts China in danger of missing its carbon intensity NDC target for the first time since the Paris Agreement. We project China to comfortably overachieve its non-fossil energy share and renewable capacity targets without substantially increasing its current mitigation efforts, despite an increased emissions trajectory.
We have revised absolute emission levels in 2030 upward by 2-5% in 2030 compared to our previous assessment, meaning that China’s climate and energy policies are not strong enough to drive down emissions.Īs in previous years, the analysis shows emission levels under domestic policies to be lower compared to China’s energy-related NDC targets. China has continued to stockpile coal at record rates although consumption, the direct link to emissions, remains uncertain.Īccording to our analysis, emissions are expected to peak around 2025 and plateau at high levels for the rest of the decade. In a year where China’s economy slowed from zero-COVID policies and subdued industrial and transport activity, we estimate China’s emissions in 2022 to have stayed roughly stable at 14.2 GtCO 2e. The CAT’s overall rating for China’s policies and targets remains “Highly insufficient”. The government appears to have room to raise ambition in its climate, energy and sector targets but geopolitics, energy security concerns, and international diplomacy remain a lingering barrier. Carbon emissions peaking timelines in high-emitting industry sectors have been pushed back to align with the economy-wide 2030 peaking target. The government continues to champion the role of fossil fuels in transitioning its energy sector, with maximising coal production and oil and gas exploration seen as key to providing stability and security. Energy and electricity demand forecasts continue to grow, prolonging China's dependence on fossil fuels, despite substantial progress in renewables and end use sectors. China’s emissions under current policies remain sky high with no sign of substantial emission reductions before the 2030 peaking timeline, putting one of the country’s NDC targets in jeopardy.
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